Black and Hispanic student demographics at flagship universities whose states have long banned affirmative action have plateaued in the last decade, despite those demographics’ populations increasing substantially in that same period.
While the Supreme Court is readying to strike down affirmative action nationally, universities that have leveraged race-based admissions are concerned about how Black and Hispanic enrollment might fare. State and student demographic data collected by Data Commons and Data USA from 2012 to 2020 shows that while Black and Hispanic populations have substantially grown throughout California, Washington, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, Arizona, New Hampshire and Oklahoma, the student body of those states’ flagship universities has not reflected that increase whatsoever.
For example, the Hispanic population has increased by 26% in states where affirmative action has already been banned. However, the average increase in the Hispanic student body across their flagship universities is only 4%.
Similarly, while these states’ overall Black population has increased by 14%, Black student enrollment has only increased by less than a percentage point on average at flagship universities.
Minority students weighing whether to enroll at a major university may be worried about finding others who share their cultural experience. Ultimately, those schools can lose out.
“Why would I go to U of M?” said Odia Kaba, a class of 2022 student who chose to remain at Eastern Michigan University to finish her studies, according to AP News. “I’m just going to be stuck with people that don’t look like me, can’t relate to me, and with no way to escape it.”
This article covers the first eight states to have banned affirmative action since their states’ Supreme Court denied its practice in or before 2012. On the other hand, Idaho struck down race-based admissions in 2020, so its long-term trends have not matured enough to analyze.
Percent demographic changes from 2012 to 2020: State vs. State’s flagship university
California
State population
- Black: unchanged (2.25 million in 2020)
- Hispanic: 10% increase (15.4 million)
University of California Berkeley
- Black: unchanged
- 3% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 5% increase
- 17% of the student body in 2020
Washington
State population
- Black: 22% increase (290k in 2020)
- Hispanic: 29% increase (972k)
University of Washington – Seattle
- Black: unchanged
- 3% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 3% increase
- 9% of the student body in 2020
Florida
State population
- Black: 12% increase (3.38 million in 2020)
- Hispanic: 29% increase (5.47 million)
University of Florida
- Black: 1% decrease
- 6% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 6% increase
- 21% of the student body in 2020
Michigan
State population
- Black: 2% decrease (1.36 million in 2020)
- Hispanic: 19% increase (521k)
University of Michigan – Ann Arbor
- Black: 1% increase
- 5% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 3% increase
- 7% of the student body in 2020
Nebraska
State population
- Black: 12% increase (91.9k in 2020)
- Hispanic: 29% increase (215k)
University of Nebraska – Lincoln
- Black: 1% increase
- 3% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 3% increase
- 7% of the student body in 2020
Arizona
State population
- Black: 24% increase (325k in 2020)
- Hispanic: 19% increase (2.26 million)
University of Arizona
- Black: 1% increase
- 4% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 6% increase
- 27% of the student body in 2020
New Hampshire
State population
- Black: 37% increase (21k in 2020)
- Hispanic: 41% increase (52.8k million)
University of New Hampshire
- Black: unchanged
- 1% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 1% increase
- 4% of the student body in 2020
Oklahoma
State population
- Black: 6% increase (288k million in 2020)
- Hispanic: 30% increase (431k)
University of Oklahoma
- Black: 1% decrease
- 5% of the student body in 2020
- Hispanic: 4% increase
- 11% of the student body in 2020
